A person’s assessment of the likelihood that his predictions are correct. Useful for tasks for which the forecaster gets good feedback; otherwise, self-confidence and accuracy are not closely related for individual forecasters (Plous 1993, pp. 225-227). Self-confidence rises rapidly as groups discuss problems and as people receive more information. However, this rise is often unrelated to gains in accuracy (Oskamp, 1965). Self-confidence ratings are useful for assessing prediction intervals in situations where the forecaster gets excellent feedback.