A person’s assessment of the likelihood that his predictions are correct. Useful for tasks for which the forecaster gets good <a href="search.pl?p=feedback">feedback</a>; otherwise, self-confidence and accuracy are not closely related for individual forecasters (Plous 1993, pp. 225-227). Self-confidence rises rapidly as groups discuss problems and as people receive more information. However, this rise is often unrelated to gains in accuracy (Oskamp, 1965). Self-confidence ratings are useful for assessing <a href="search.pl?p=prediction intervals">prediction intervals</a> in situations where the forecaster gets excellent <a href="search.pl?p=feedback">feedback</a>. <o:p></o:p></P>
 <ul>
   <li>Plous, 
S. (1993), <I>The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making</I>. New York: 
McGraw Hill.</li>
   <li>Oskamp, S. (1965), “Overconfidence in case study 
judgments,” <I>Journal of Consulting Psychology</I>, 29, 
261-265.</li>
 </ul>