A technique whereby people play roles to understand or predict behavior. Roles have a strong influence on behavior (Armstrong 2001), including the forecasting behavior of decision makers. Role playing can be used to predict what will happen if conditions change or alternative strategies are considered. Armstrong (2001) has shown that forecasts from role playing are substantially more accurate than forecasts derived from expert opinions.

He also describes the role playing process, which consists of the following steps:

Casting

Those playing roles should be somewhat similar to the people they represent.

Role Instructions

Describe the roles to subjects before they read the situation description.
Ask the role players to act as they themselves would act given the role and the situation, or ask them to act as they believe the persons they represent would act.
Instruct players to improvise but to remain within their roles.

Description of the Situation

Describe the situation accurately and comprehensively, but briefly.
Specify possible decisions for the role players when feasible.
Provide realistic surroundings.

Administration

Ask participants to act out their responses.
Ask subjects to interact in a way that matches the actual decision-making situation.

Coding

To reduce chances for misinterpretation, ask role players to write their view of the decision.
If interpretation of the decision is required, have two or more people independently code the responses.

Number of Sessions

Base predictions on results from a number of role-playing sessions.

When role playing is used is represent interactions among a small number of parties who are in conflict, it is referred to as simulated interaction.

Armstrong, J. S. (2001a), “Role-playing: A method to forecast decisions,” in J. S. Armstrong (ed.), Principles of Forecasting. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Press.