A state of mind that causes a respondent to forecast that favorable events are more likely to occur than is justified by the facts. Also known as wishful thinking. This has long been recognized. For example, Hayes (1936) surveyed people two weeks before the 1932 U.S. presidential election. Of male factory workers who intended to vote for Hoover, 84% predicted he would win. Of those who intended to vote for Roosevelt, only 6% thought Hoover would win. Many of us are susceptible to this bias. We think we are more likely to experience positive than negative events (Plous 1993, pp. 134-135). Warnings about the optimism bias (e.g., “People tend to be too optimistic when making such estimates”) help only to a minor extent. <a href="search.pl?p=Analogies">Analogies</a> may help to avoid optimism. <o:p></o:p></P>
 <ul>
   <li>Hayes, S. P. (1936), “The predictive ability of voters,” 
<I>Journal of Social Psychology</I>, 7, 185-191.</li>
   <li>Plous, 
S. (1993), <I>The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making</I>. New York: 
McGraw Hill.<o:p></o:p></li>
 </ul>