A procedure for simulating real-world events. First, the problem is decomposed; then a distribution (rather than a point estimate) is obtained for each of the decomposed parts. A trial is created by drawing randomly from each of the distributions. The procedure is repeated for many trials to build up a distribution of outcomes. Monte Carlo simulation can be used to estimate <a href="search.pl?p=prediction intervals">prediction intervals</a>.<o:p></o:p></P>