The term used for the series of three comparative studies of extrapolation methods organized by Spyros Makridakis, starting with the 1,001 time-series competition in Makridakis et al. (1982) and including Makridakis et al. (1993) and Makridakis and Hibon (2000). In each study, a number of different experts prepared extrapolations for holdout data.
The accuracies of the various methods were then compared by the study’s lead
author. Raw data and information about these competitions can be found on the
Practitioners pages of this site.
- Makridakis, S., A. Andersen, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M.
Hibon, R. Lewandowski, J. Newton, E. Parzen & R. Winkler (1982), “The
accuracy of extrapolation (time-series) methods: Results of a forecasting
competition,” Journal of Forecasting, 1, 111-153.
- Makridakis, S., C. Chatfield, M. Hibon, M. Lawrence, T.
Mills, K. Ord & L. F. Simmons (1993), “The M2-Competition: A real-time
judgmentally based forecasting study,” International Journal of
Forecasting, 9, 5-22.
- Makridakis, S. & M. Hibon (2000), “The
M3-Competition: Results, conclusions and implications,” International Journal
of Forecasting, 16, 451-476.