A tendency to exaggerate in hindsight how accurately one predicted or would have been able to predict by foresight. Sometimes referred to as the “I knew it all along” effect. Forecasters usually "remember" that the forecasts were more accurate. Because of hindsight bias, experts may be overconfident about later forecasts. To reduce hindsight bias, ask forecasters to explicitly consider how past events might have turned out differently. Much research on hindsight bias was apparently stimulated by Fischhoff (1975), which was cited by about 400 academic studies as of the end of 1999. A meta-analysis was published by Cristensen-Szalanski (1991). For a discussion of principles relating hindsight bias to forecasting, see Fischoff (2001).

• Fischhoff, B. (1975), “Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1, 288-297.
• Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. J. (1991), “The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 43, 147-168.
• Fischhoff, B. (2001), “Learning from experience: Coping with hindsight bias and ambiguity,” in J. S. Armstrong (ed.), Principles of Forecasting. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Press.