Information that experts receive about the accuracy of their forecasts and the reasons for the errors. Accurate, well-summarized feedback is probably the primary basis experts have for improving their judgmental forecasts. The manner in which feedback is provided is critical because people tend to see what they want to see or what they expect. When feedback is well-summarized, frequent, and when it contains explanations for the events, judgmental forecasters can become well-calibrated. Weather forecasters receive this kind of feedback, and they are almost perfectly calibrated: it rains on 80% of the days on which they predict an 80% chance of rain (Murphy and Winkler 1984).  Well-structured feedback is especially important when it involves disconfirming evidence.