The increase in the perceived likelihood of an event’s occurrence that results from explaining why the event might occur. This effect is relevant to <a href="search.pl?p=conjoint analysis">conjoint analysis</a> and to <a href="search.pl?p=expert opinions">expert opinions</a> (Arkes 2001). On the positive side, it can cause decision makers to pay attention to a possible outcome; as a result, it can contribute to <a href="search.pl?p=scenarios">scenarios</a>. <o:p></o:p></P>
 <ul>
   <li>Arkes, H. R. (2001), Overconfidence in judgmental 
forecasting,” in J. S. Armstrong (ed.), <I>Principles of Forecasting.</I> 
Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Press.</li>
 </ul>