A forecast that uses only information that would have been available at the forecast <a href="search.pl?p=origin">origin</a>; it does not use actual values of variables from later periods. This term, often used interchangeably with <a href="search.pl?p=unconditional forecast">unconditional forecast</a>, is what we normally think of as a forecast. It can refer to <a href="search.pl?p=holdout data">holdout data</a> (assuming the values to be unknown) or to a situation in which the event has not yet occurred (pure ex ante). See Armstrong 2001d.<o:p></o:p></P>
 <ul>
   <li>Armstrong, J. S. (2001d), “Evaluating forecasting 
methods,” in J. S. Armstrong (ed.), <I>Principles of Forecasting.</I> Norwell, 
MA: Kluwer Academic Press.</li>
 </ul>