A model that explains changes in the dependent variable in terms of changes in the <a href="search.pl?p=explanatory variables">explanatory variables</a> as well as deviations from the <a href="search.pl?p=long-run relationship">long-run relationship</a> between the <a href="search.pl?p=dependent variable">dependent variable</a> and its determinants. Do error correction models lead to more accurate forecasts? The jury is still out.</P>