Evidence that refutes one’s beliefs or forecasts.&nbsp; Substantial evidence shows that people do not use disconfirming evidence effectively, especially if received on a case-by-case basis.&nbsp; Tetlock (1999), in a long-term study of political, economic, and military forecasts, shows how people use a variety of belief-system defenses, which makes learning from history a slow process.&nbsp; <o:p></o:p></P>
<ul>
  <li>Tetlock, P.E. (1999), “Theory-driven reasoning about 
plausible pasts and probably futures in world politics: Are we prisoners of our 
preconceptions?” <I>American Journal of Political Science</I>, 43, 
335-366.</li>
</ul>