A relationship whereby one variable, <I>X</I>, produces a change in another variable, <I>Y</I>, when changes in <I>X</I> are either necessary or sufficient to bring about a change in <I>Y</I>, and when the change in <I>X</I> occurs before the change in <I>Y. </I>Einhorn and Hogarth (1982) discuss causal thinking in forecasting. <o:p></o:p></P>
 <ul>
   <li>Einhorn, H. J. &amp; R. M. Hogarth (1982), “Prediction 
diagnosis and causal thinking in forecasting,” <I>Journal of Forecasting</I>, 1, 
23-36. </li>
 </ul>