The application of autoregressive-integrated-moving average (ARIMA) models to time-series forecasting problems. Originally developed in the 1930s, the approach was not widely known until Box and Jenkins (1970) published a detailed description. It is the most widely cited method in extrapolation, and it has been used by many firms. Mentzer and Kahn (1995) found that analysts in 38% of the 205 firms surveyed were familiar with BJ, it was used in about one-quarter of these firms, and about 44% of those familiar with it were satisfied. This satisfaction level can be compared with 72% satisfaction with exponential smoothing in the same survey. Contrary to early expectations, empirical studies have shown that it has not improved forecast accuracy of extrapolation methods.

• Box, G. E. P. & G. M. Jenkins (1970), Time-Series  Analysis. San Francisco: Holden-Day. Later editions were published in 1976 and 1994, the latter with G.C. Reinsell.
• Mentzer, J. T. & K. B. Kahn (1995), “Forecasting technique familiarity, satisfaction, usage, and application” Journal of Forecasting, 14, 465-476.