Forecasts used as a basis for comparison. Benchmarks are most useful if based on the specific situation, such as forecasts produced by the current method. For
general purposes, Mentzer and Cox (1984) examined forecasts errors for various levels in the product hierarchy and for different horizons as shown here:
Typical Errors for Sales Forecasts (Entries are MAPEs) |
|||
Level |
Forecast Horizon |
||
Under 3 Months |
3 Months to 2 Years |
Over 2 Years |
|
Industry Corporate Product group Product Line Product |
8 7 10 11 16 |
11 11 15 16 21 |
15 18 20 20 26 |
Source: Mentzer and Cox’s (1984) survey results from 160 corporations are crude because most firms do not keep systematic records. Further, the study was ambiguous in its definitions of the time interval. “Under 3 months” probably refers to “monthly” in most cases, but the length of time is not apparent for “Over 2 years.” |