The tendency of judges’ estimates (or forecasts) to be influenced when they start with a “convenient” estimate in making their forecasts. This initial estimate (or anchor) can be based on tradition, previous history, or available data. In one study that demonstrates anchoring, Tversky and Kahneman (1974) asked subjects to predict the percentage of nations in the United Nations that were African. They selected an initial value by spinning a wheel of fortune in the subject’s presence. The subject was asked to revise this number upward or downward to obtain an answer. The information-free initial value had a strong influence on the estimate. Those starting with 10% made predictions averaging 25%. In contrast, those starting with 65% made predictions averaging 45%. <o:p></o:p></P>
 <ul>
   <li>Tversky, A. &amp; D. Kahneman (1974), “Judgment under 
uncertainty,” <I>Science</I>, 185, 1122-1131.</li>
 </ul>